Is he right?

Initial reports about the massive explosion in North Korea dismissed the idea that it was actually an attempt to knock off Kim Jong Il. I just noticed this post by Philip Murphy in which he speculates that not only was this such an attempt, but that it was succesful.

We know that the Grand Wizard of Oz, the Embodiment of the Juche Ideal, the Mickey Mouse of North Korea’s Magic Kingdom, Kim Jong-il, was passing through the picturesque Ryongchon rail yard the same day as a massive explosion leveled the train station and much of the surrounding neighborhood.

We know he was on a train because the preferred method of travel among the politically insane is by armored railcar – or luxury submarine if available.

He also notes that reports indicate that over 500 people, most of them children, were blinded by the explosion. He notes that the most logical explanation for that is that these people were looking right at the tracks when the explosion happened. This, of course, would be happening if large numbers of people were lined up by the tracks to see "Dear Leader."

He also notes that "Dear Leader" has been completely out of site since the explosion. He appears to be right about this. He's not the only one that's noticed either, but there seem to be varying opinions about what this means. Some experts point out that Kim has disappeared for long stints in the past. However, Murphy is not the only one speculating about Kim's whereabouts or why so many children were blinded.

I'd also note that many people did not expect Kim to allow relief workers into the country, but just a few hours later, the North Korean government requested foreign aid. This seems out of character, so it might be circumstantial evidence of a change in leadership. Also, according to the IHT story linked above, while the North is accepting massive aid from South Korea, they are not allowing any of it it be simply driven to the disaster area by truck. Instead, all aid from the South is arriving by ship. This, along with refusals to allow foreign journalists near the scene, could mean that they have something to hide.

On the other hand, it could all mean nothing. When dealing with such a closed and suspicious society, decision making is often completely inscrutable to outsiders and they almost always do have something to hide. As a result, it's hard to distinguish the government's general paranoia from it's specific paranoia.

So, is Kim Jong Il dead? I have no idea. But I do have a preference.